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MRC

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BULLETIN

MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR FLASH FLOOD IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN:

RAINSTORMS TRACKER

(In the last 24)

THE TOTAL NUMBER OF STORM EVENTS IN EACH AREA

* Rainstorm tracker monitor and alert decision-makers about the severity of storm events over the Lower Mekong basin in near-real and real-time. by Satellite-based Precipitation Products (SPP).

Source: SERVIR SEA/ADPC

Source: GSMaP NOW

Rain Storm Legend

This map shows the 24-hour rainfall accumulation using GSMaP NOW satellite-based precipitation estimates.

  • ASM - 06 hr
  • REGIONAL

Basin Saturation Level (ASM)

  • MAP - 24 hr
  • REGIONAL

Rainfall estimation (MAP)

  • FFG - 01 hr
  • REGIONAL

Rainfall which can cause flooding (FFG)

  • FFG - 03 hr
  • REGIONAL

Rainfall which can cause flooding (FFG)

  • FFG - 06 hr
  • REGIONAL

Rainfall which can cause flooding (FFG)

  • FMAP - 24 hr
  • REGIONAL

Rainfall Forecast (FMAP)

  • FFR - 12 hr
  • REGIONAL

Flood risk up to 12.00 UTC (FFR+12)

  • FFR - 24 hr
  • REGIONAL

Flood risk up to 24.00 UTC (FFR+24)

REMARKS

FFG - Flash Flood Guidance: The amount of rainfall over a given duration (1, 3, 6 hours) which is just enough to cause bank-full flow in the draining stream outlet.

MAP - Mean Areal Precipitation: Derived mean areal precipitation estimates from bias-adjusted Micro-Wave Global Hydro Estimator (MWGHE) and GHE.

ASM - Average Soil Moisture: Soil water saturation fraction (dimensionless ratio of contents over capacity) for the upper zone (approximately 20-30 cm depth).

FMAP - Forecast Mean Areal Precipitation: Accumulations of forecasted mean areal precipitation produced by numerical forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Each data product reflects basin-average precipitation accumulations from the navigation hour over the corresponding interval.

FFFT - Forecast Flash Flood Threat: The difference between the predicted rainfall (FMAP) and the amount needed to reach the bank full stage (FFG). Basin/sub-basin with a positive FFFT value is assumed to be an area with the potential for flash floods in the given time range.

FFR - Flash Flood Risk: Products for forecast periods of 12, 24 and 36 hours (forecast periods 12 and 24 hours are shown in this bulletin). These products are computed every six hours and measure the occurrence of positive forecast flash flood threat (FMAP > FFG) over a given forecast period using forecast precipitation to drive the Soil and FFG models.

Note: Please be aware of the different color bar codes of each product.

ASM (Average Soil Moisture) Classification
0.01 < ASM < 0.65 Normal state
0.65 < ASM < 0.9 Nearly saturation state
0.9 < ASM ≤ 1 Saturation state
FFR (Flash Flood Risk)
Low (Be Updated)
Moderate (Be Prepared)
High (Take Action)
FFG (Flash Flood Guidance)
FFG 01 Hrs Classification FFG 03 Hrs Classification FFG 06 Hrs Classification
FFG ≤ 10 High FFG ≤ 10 High FFG ≤ 15 High
10 < FFG ≤ 25 Moderate 10 < FFG ≤ 25 Moderate 15 < FFG ≤ 30 Moderate
25 < FFG ≤ 40 Low 25 < FFG ≤ 40 Low 30 < FFG ≤ 60 Low
MAP; FMAP (Precipitation) Classification
(mm/6hr) (mm/24hr)
Rainfall < 7,5 < 10 Light rain
7.5 < Rainfall ≤ 35 10 < Rainfall ≤ 50 Moderate rain
35 < Rainfall ≤ 70 50 < Rainfall ≤ 100 Heavy rain
Rainfall > 70 Rainfall > 100 Very heavy rain

* This Bulletin is meant to contribute to forecasting flash flood events for meteorologists and relate experts in each member country and enhancing flash flood warning information for the overall area of the Lower Mekong basin.